50 – 40 Now The Real Battle Begins For The 2010 GOP Endorsement
In my opinion, only 50% for Seifert is a bad night for him. Running as the heir apparent with the establishment behind him, only managing 50% is a poor showing and considering that he has spoken before most of these Caucus goers a time or dozen over the last few years, well, it kinda gets worse. You see, Seifert has been stealthily running for Governor – a la Pawlenty for Prez – the last few years. He saturated Republican meetings and events as Minority Leader so his face and name was highly known. I think I remember the stories about him going through 2 transmissions at an event or two.
I know I am biased in this since I am a Tom Emmer supporter, but considering Seifert’s “commanding lead” in dollars, his insider status, and inheritance of a campaign operation – only garnering 50% last night is a bad performance. To add insult to injury, the tsunami of new faces from 08 has subsided, and the Ron Paul Revolution seems to have run its course. So the voters last night in GOP Precincts, was much more in line with the usual crowd, as in the people who have seen Seifert speak numerous times.
Look, I’ll congratulate him on winning, but I just want to point out that his inability to pull away at the midway point is not showing momentum. And that Emmer’s 40% was more then the handicappers who write the big checks and pull the strings could have imagined.
Up to now, there was no real clue who the Delegates who vote for the endorsement would be for sure. The lists from 08 were rendered useless due to the incredibly high turnout to Caucus in 08 by people who thought it was a primary. People got elected as Delegates, but didn’t show up or follow through on attending. Up to this point, the candidates had a monstrous list of people to contact with most probably asking to not be bothered again to get off their couch. (Not intended to be incendiary, just pointing out how turnout was down by two thirds and the people being contacted, are Caucus attendees)
Here in odd-10 here, now we finally have ourselves the actual pool of people for the candidates to work with. The list of 60,000 attendees from 08 is now down to 20,000. Of that, 2,000 or so will become State Delegates through the various District and CD Conventions. So while Seifert managed to eek out half of the vote last night, it does not speak as a mandate by the base that Seifert has been anointed.
At this point, the advantage goes to Emmer. Seifert made himself the heir apparent, but there is a spirit of change in the air out there. There is still angst over the status quo with in the Republican Party, the establishment, so I have a gut feeling that this thing is just getting started. Last night was where we informally winnowed the field down to 2. (Hopefully the others got the message and will gracefully bow out now to save us time sitting in uncomfortable seats at the upcoming conventions listening to their speeches eventhough we have no intention of voting for them)
Last night, the teams got done with warm ups, and the opening coin flip was a good one for Seifert but didn’t take it all the way for a touchdown, in fact, the game is just getting underway this morning.
The point is Seifert should have run the tables last night. Had it been 50 to 25 with Hann nipping at Emmer’s heels, yeah, then I’d admit this baby would be over, but it was only 50 to 40 and everyone else was in the dust. So while Seifert takes the “win” last night, Emmer closed the presumptive gap as we now move into regulation play.










I don’t have a tenth your political acumen, but it strikes me that such straw polls have wide margins of error, better than 10%. That would mean Emmer and Seifert are statistically tied, with everyone else sharing the 10 percent left over.
I like our Nov chances either way, especially against a big city lib like RT or MAK. And I’d be more than happy to see either Seifert or Emmer succeed Pawlenty.
Well, the straw poll did clarify what everyone knew, there are only 2 viable candidates on the GOP side. The rest of the candidates had better fold up shop pretty quickly.
This is a win for Seifert though. I believe you need 60% to win the nomination at the state convention? So Seifert only needs to pick up 10% compared to Emmer who needs to pick up 20%.
The other thing to consider is that not only did Seifert win my district, but several Emmer supporters in my precinct (There were 4 total) made it clear that they just came for the straw poll, they were not interested in going on to the district convention to elect Emmer delegates to the State Convention. But they came to vote for Emmer in the straw poll, and I’m sure they felt like they did Emmer a favor.
So, in our district at least, not only did Seifert win the straw poll, but I expect his position to be strengthened at the district convention.
I don’t think that anyone expected Seifert to be “anointed” but I do think that as people see that he is the stronger fundraiser, stronger campaigner, and has values more aligned with mainstream Minnesotan’s that he’ll end up winning the delegates at the next level.
Like I said before. Seifert won on the message he is the machine and has the money. Delagates will here the debate and the message and will choose Emmer. Red Star headlines had Seifert crushing Emmer, I see what side they are on.
BM has a point. Strength of support is crucial. If Emmer’s straw poll supporters are strong partisans who will go on to try to get elected delegate and alternate at their SD and CD, then he has a good shot at endorsement. If Seifert’s are more passionate, then it’s him. I actually saw the reverse of what he did at my caucus. Emmer supporters who wanted to go on, Seifert supporters who couldn’t make the meetings at the next level, I am sure there will be some of that across the board and we’ll just have to see how the chips fall across the state as SDs choose their delegates.
Andy, I think you are partly right about the Ron Paul Revolution. I think it did bring in some new faces who have stuck around. I also think it still lives on in some of the exurban districts. It will affect the dynamic but with other factors as well. I think a Ron Paul fan is more likely to support Tom than Marty if they aren’t staying home, but that’s just based on my anecdotal experience. Emmer needs to parse the Seifert support in greater MN, find out why it’s so huge there and whether anything can be done about it.