50 – 40 Now The Real Battle Begins For The 2010 GOP Endorsement
In my opinion, only 50% for Seifert is a bad night for him. Running as the heir apparent with the establishment behind him, only managing 50% is a poor showing and considering that he has spoken before most of these Caucus goers a time or dozen over the last few years, well, it kinda gets worse. You see, Seifert has been stealthily running for Governor – a la Pawlenty for Prez – the last few years. He saturated Republican meetings and events as Minority Leader so his face and name was highly known. I think I remember the stories about him going through 2 transmissions at an event or two.
I know I am biased in this since I am a Tom Emmer supporter, but considering Seifert’s “commanding lead” in dollars, his insider status, and inheritance of a campaign operation – only garnering 50% last night is a bad performance. To add insult to injury, the tsunami of new faces from 08 has subsided, and the Ron Paul Revolution seems to have run its course. So the voters last night in GOP Precincts, was much more in line with the usual crowd, as in the people who have seen Seifert speak numerous times.
Look, I’ll congratulate him on winning, but I just want to point out that his inability to pull away at the midway point is not showing momentum. And that Emmer’s 40% was more then the handicappers who write the big checks and pull the strings could have imagined.
Up to now, there was no real clue who the Delegates who vote for the endorsement would be for sure. The lists from 08 were rendered useless due to the incredibly high turnout to Caucus in 08 by people who thought it was a primary. People got elected as Delegates, but didn’t show up or follow through on attending. Up to this point, the candidates had a monstrous list of people to contact with most probably asking to not be bothered again to get off their couch. (Not intended to be incendiary, just pointing out how turnout was down by two thirds and the people being contacted, are Caucus attendees)
Here in odd-10 here, now we finally have ourselves the actual pool of people for the candidates to work with. The list of 60,000 attendees from 08 is now down to 20,000. Of that, 2,000 or so will become State Delegates through the various District and CD Conventions. So while Seifert managed to eek out half of the vote last night, it does not speak as a mandate by the base that Seifert has been anointed.
At this point, the advantage goes to Emmer. Seifert made himself the heir apparent, but there is a spirit of change in the air out there. There is still angst over the status quo with in the Republican Party, the establishment, so I have a gut feeling that this thing is just getting started. Last night was where we informally winnowed the field down to 2. (Hopefully the others got the message and will gracefully bow out now to save us time sitting in uncomfortable seats at the upcoming conventions listening to their speeches eventhough we have no intention of voting for them)
Last night, the teams got done with warm ups, and the opening coin flip was a good one for Seifert but didn’t take it all the way for a touchdown, in fact, the game is just getting underway this morning.
The point is Seifert should have run the tables last night. Had it been 50 to 25 with Hann nipping at Emmer’s heels, yeah, then I’d admit this baby would be over, but it was only 50 to 40 and everyone else was in the dust. So while Seifert takes the “win” last night, Emmer closed the presumptive gap as we now move into regulation play.